Oraclepoll Blog

Mood of Canadians in Election Year

by Paul Seccaspina on April 2, 2015 No comments

With a Federal Election just over six months away our recent poll of 3000 Canadians (conducted March 12th to March 30th 2015) shows that the Conservatives have a 4% lead over the Liberals. Nationally the Conservatives are backed by 35% of decided voters, while 31% support the Liberals. A total of 19% would vote for the NDP if an Election were held, 9% the Green Party and 6% the Bloc.

The Conservatives show strongest in the Prairies with 58%, while the Liberals place second at 25%. Tory support is also strong BC at 35% and the west coast is also where the NDP also have their strongest national showing at 28% (the Liberals trail at 21%). In the battle ground province of Ontario the Conservatives have a slight edge over the Liberals (37% compared to 36%). Liberal voters are most likely to be found in the Maritimes (45%) while Green support is strongest in BC (16%) and the eastern provinces (11%). The story in Quebec reveals a more fragmented political scene where the Liberals sit at 31%, the Bloc have 25% and the NDP 19% (6% would vote Green).

At this early point this spring there are still 19% of voters that are undecided. My next post will reveal some interesting demographic finds and the reasons (the whys) behind voter intentions.

Paul Seccaspina

Methodology and Logistics